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MTK Budapest vs Nyiregyhaza Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:00

MTK Budapest

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nyiregyhaza

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 69.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.6%0-23.6%0-31.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.7%1-19.0%1-27.1%1-33.7%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.7%3-15.8%3-24.5%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.4%4+-23.5%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 42.0% 2.38 +8.8%

Draw 24.5% 29.9% 3.35 -17.9%

Away win 29.8% 37.0% 2.70 -19.5%

Over 2.5 68.5% 57.8% 1.73 +18.5%

Over 3.5 47.0% 36.4% 2.75 +29.3%

BTTS 69.4% 64.5% 1.55 +7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob69.4%

H 46% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.0%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MTK Budapest2.0

Nyiregyhaza1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.5% · O3.5 PROB 47.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MTK BUDAPEST · PPG 1.50

NYIREGYHAZA · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

MTK Budapest (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +8.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -17.9%

Nyiregyhaza (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

MTK Budapest face Nyiregyhaza in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MTK Budapest a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Nyiregyhaza 30%, so MTK Budapest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for MTK Budapest and 1.6 for Nyiregyhaza (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MTK Budapest are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.20 for Nyiregyhaza. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.3%. This match finished 1-1.

MTK Budapest vs Nyiregyhaza Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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