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Karpaty U19 vs Cherkasy U19 Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 15:00

Karpaty U19

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cherkasy U19

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 70.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+36.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.9%0-24.1%0-32.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.4%1-19.1%1-27.7%1-34.3%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.1%3-15.2%3-24.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.7%4+-23.1%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 33.9% 2.95 +20.7%

Draw 24.8% 33.3% 3.00 -25.6%

Away win 34.3% 43.5% 2.30 -21.1%

Over 2.5 68.6% 42.0% 2.38 +63.3%

Over 3.5 47.2% 22.2% 4.50 +112.4%

BTTS 70.1% 51.3% 1.95 +36.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob70.1%

H 41% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karpaty U191.9

Cherkasy U191.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.6% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KARPATY U19 · PPG 1.17

CHERKASY U19 · PPG 1.67

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

57%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.17) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Karpaty U19 (H) 40.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +20.7%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -25.6%

Cherkasy U19 (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karpaty U19 face Cherkasy U19 in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karpaty U19 a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Cherkasy U19 34%, so Karpaty U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Karpaty U19 and 1.7 for Cherkasy U19 (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karpaty U19 are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.67 for Cherkasy U19. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +112.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Karpaty U19 vs Cherkasy U19 Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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