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Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 10:00

Oleksandria

PPG 0.58 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Kolos Kovalivka

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-115.2%0-210.6%0-35.0%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.9%1-112.5%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-03.7%2-15.1%2-23.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.0%3-11.4%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.2% 25.6% 3.90 -21.2%

Draw 31.1% 33.9% 2.95 -8.3%

Away win 48.7% 51.3% 1.95 -5.0%

Over 2.5 38.3% 40.8% 2.45 -6.2%

Over 3.5 18.5% 21.1% 4.75 -12.1%

BTTS 44.1% 48.8% 2.05 -9.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob44.1%

A 49% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 15.2%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 0–2 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oleksandria0.8

Kolos Kovalivka1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OLEKSANDRIA · PPG 0.58

KOLOS KOVALIVKA · PPG 1.58

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

49%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.58) vs Home POOR (0.58)

Win probability 1X2

Oleksandria (H) 20.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -21.2%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -8.3%

Kolos Kovalivka (A) 48.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oleksandria face Kolos Kovalivka in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oleksandria a 20% chance, the draw 31% and Kolos Kovalivka 49%, so Kolos Kovalivka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Oleksandria and 1.4 for Kolos Kovalivka (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oleksandria are averaging 0.58 points per game versus 1.58 for Kolos Kovalivka. This match finished 0-3.

Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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