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Oliveirense vs Lusitania FC Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 10:00

Oliveirense

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lusitania FC

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.2%0-25.6%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.7%1-111.9%1-28.1%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.6%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.1%3-14.2%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 43.5% 2.30 -13.3%

Draw 28.8% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Away win 33.5% 34.5% 2.90 -2.9%

Over 2.5 53.3% 50.0% 2.00 +6.6%

Over 3.5 31.1% 28.2% 3.55 +10.4%

BTTS 58.7% 57.8% 1.73 +1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.7%

D 29% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–0✓ 6.0%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oliveirense1.5

Lusitania FC1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIVEIRENSE · PPG 1.40

LUSITANIA FC · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Oliveirense (H) 37.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -13.3%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Lusitania FC (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oliveirense face Lusitania FC in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oliveirense a 38% chance, the draw 29% and Lusitania FC 34%, so Oliveirense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Oliveirense and 1.4 for Lusitania FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oliveirense are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.33 for Lusitania FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Oliveirense vs Lusitania FC Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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