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St George City vs Sydney FC B Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 09:15

St George City

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sydney FC B

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.9%0-26.6%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.4%1-112.5%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.0%2-18.0%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.5%3-13.4%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.5% 44.4% 2.25 -24.6%

Draw 30.2% 29.4% 3.40 +2.7%

Away win 36.4% 36.4% 2.75 +0.1%

Over 2.5 48.1% 55.6% 1.80 -13.4%

Over 3.5 26.4% 33.3% 3.00 -20.8%

BTTS 54.7% 60.6% 1.65 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St George City1.3

Sydney FC B1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.1% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ST GEORGE CITY · PPG 1.33

SYDNEY FC B · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

St George City (H) 33.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -24.6%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +2.7%

Sydney FC B (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

St George City face Sydney FC B in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St George City a 34% chance, the draw 30% and Sydney FC B 36%, so Sydney FC B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for St George City and 1.3 for Sydney FC B (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St George City are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Sydney FC B. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 0-5.

St George City vs Sydney FC B Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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