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Logan Lightning vs Broadbeach Utd Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 09:00

Logan Lightning

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Broadbeach Utd

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.0% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a clear edge.

+14.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.1%0-24.5%0-34.4%0-4+6.5%1 1-01.8%1-15.1%1-27.4%1-37.2%1-4+10.6%2 2-01.4%2-14.1%2-26.0%2-35.8%2-4+8.6%3 3-00.8%3-12.2%3-23.3%3-33.2%3-4+4.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.9%4+-31.8%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.8% 34.5% 2.90 -45.5%

Draw 18.0% 25.3% 3.95 -28.9%

Away win 63.2% 50.0% 2.00 +26.4%

Over 2.5 83.0% 72.5% 1.38 +14.5%

Over 3.5 66.3% 51.3% 1.95 +29.3%

BTTS 76.7% 74.1% 1.35 +3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob76.7%

A 63% / xG 1.6-2.9 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 77%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.4%

#2 1–3 7.2%

#3 2–2 6.0%

#4 1–1 5.1%

#5 2–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Logan Lightning1.6

Broadbeach Utd2.9

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.0% · O3.5 PROB 66.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LOGAN LIGHTNING · PPG 1.33

BROADBEACH UTD · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Logan Lightning (H) 18.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -45.5%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -28.9%

Broadbeach Utd (A) 63.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +26.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Logan Lightning face Broadbeach Utd in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Logan Lightning a 19% chance, the draw 18% and Broadbeach Utd 63%, so Broadbeach Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Logan Lightning and 2.9 for Broadbeach Utd (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 77% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Logan Lightning are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 3.00 for Broadbeach Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.3%. This match finished 0-4.

Logan Lightning vs Broadbeach Utd Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland Premier League Predictions