NWS Spirit vs Manly Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Australia - New South Wales NPL Regular Season - 13 Christie Park· Sydney Saturday, May 2, 2026 07:30

NWS Spirit PPG 1.50

2-1 HIT CS4

Manly Utd PPG 0.57

Draw· +9.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

NWS Spirit face Manly Utd in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NWS Spirit a 47% chance, the draw 30% and Manly Utd 24%, so NWS Spirit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for NWS Spirit and 1.0 for Manly Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NWS Spirit are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.57 for Manly Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.8%

Odds: 1.73 EV: -19.0%

Draw 29.7%

Odds: 3.70 EV: +9.9%

Away 23.5%

Odds: 3.95 EV: -7.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 45.5% Odds: 1.70 -22.7%

Over 3.5 24.2% Odds: 2.75 -33.5%

BTTS 50.9% Odds: 1.65 -16.0%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✔

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

NWS Spirit

1.50

Manly Utd

1.00

Model SuggestionBTTS -16.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -16.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+9.9%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=46.8%