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NWS Spirit vs Manly Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 07:30

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Manly Utd

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.2%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.3%1-112.3%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.2%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.6%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 57.8% 1.73 -19.0%

Draw 29.7% 27.0% 3.70 +9.9%

Away win 23.5% 25.3% 3.95 -7.2%

Over 2.5 45.5% 58.8% 1.70 -22.7%

Over 3.5 24.2% 36.4% 2.75 -33.5%

BTTS 50.9% 60.6% 1.65 -16.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.9%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 0–0 8.2%

#4 2–1✓ 9.2%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NWS Spirit1.5

Manly Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.50

MANLY UTD · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=46.8%

Win probability 1X2

NWS Spirit (H) 46.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -19.0%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +9.9%

Manly Utd (A) 23.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

NWS Spirit face Manly Utd in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NWS Spirit a 47% chance, the draw 30% and Manly Utd 24%, so NWS Spirit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for NWS Spirit and 1.0 for Manly Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NWS Spirit are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.57 for Manly Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 2-1.

NWS Spirit vs Manly Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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