Today / Australia - New South Wales NPL / SD Raiders vs APIA Leichhardt

SD Raiders vs APIA Leichhardt Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 07:00

SD Raiders

PPG 1.17 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

APIA Leichhardt

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-17.3%0-27.6%0-35.3%0-4+4.5%1 1-04.4%1-19.3%1-29.6%1-36.7%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.8%2-15.8%2-26.1%2-34.2%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.2%3-12.5%3-22.6%3-31.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.3% 20.8% 4.80 +2.2%

Draw 23.8% 23.8% 4.20 -0.0%

Away win 54.9% 65.4% 1.53 -16.0%

Over 2.5 65.0% 69.0% 1.45 -5.8%

Over 3.5 43.1% 45.5% 2.20 -5.2%

BTTS 64.2% 66.7% 1.50 -3.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob64.2%

A 55% / xG 1.3-2.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 1–3 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SD Raiders1.3

APIA Leichhardt2.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SD RAIDERS · PPG 1.17

APIA LEICHHARDT · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.17) vs Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

SD Raiders (H) 21.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +2.2%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -0.0%

APIA Leichhardt (A) 54.9%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

SD Raiders face APIA Leichhardt in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SD Raiders a 21% chance, the draw 24% and APIA Leichhardt 55%, so APIA Leichhardt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for SD Raiders and 2.1 for APIA Leichhardt (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SD Raiders are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.60 for APIA Leichhardt. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 2-3.

SD Raiders vs APIA Leichhardt Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - New South Wales NPL Predictions