Today / Valentine vs Newcastle O.

Valentine vs Newcastle O. Prediction

Saturday, May 2, 2026

Valentine

PPG 0.25 · HOME

1 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Newcastle O.

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-17.9%0-28.2%0-35.8%0-4+4.9%1 1-04.4%1-19.3%1-29.8%1-36.8%1-4+5.8%2 2-02.6%2-15.5%2-25.8%2-34.1%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.0%3-12.2%3-22.3%3-31.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.6% — — —

Draw 23.5% — — —

Away win 56.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.8% — — —

Over 3.5 41.6% — — —

BTTS 62.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-6

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob62.4%

A 57% / xG 1.2-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 1–3 6.8%

#5 0–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valentine1.2

Newcastle O.2.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 41.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENTINE · PPG 0.25

NEWCASTLE O. · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Valentine (H) 19.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Newcastle O. (A) 56.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Valentine face Newcastle O. on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valentine a 20% chance, the draw 24% and Newcastle O. 57%, so Newcastle O. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Valentine and 2.1 for Newcastle O. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valentine are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 1.60 for Newcastle O.. This match finished 1-6.

Valentine vs Newcastle O. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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