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Sutherland S. vs Marconi S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 06:00

Sutherland S.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Marconi S.

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-110.5%0-27.9%0-34.0%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.1%1-112.2%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.7%2-17.0%2-25.3%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.8%3-12.7%3-22.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 22.2% 4.50 +22.9%

Draw 29.2% 26.3% 3.80 +11.0%

Away win 43.5% 61.0% 1.64 -28.7%

Over 2.5 49.6% 55.6% 1.80 -10.7%

Over 3.5 27.7% 33.3% 3.00 -16.9%

BTTS 55.1% 56.5% 1.77 -2.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.1%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 7.0%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutherland S.1.2

Marconi S.1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTHERLAND S. · PPG 1.50

MARCONI S. · PPG 2.11

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Sutherland S. (H) 27.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +22.9%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +11.0%

Marconi S. (A) 43.5%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -28.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutherland S. face Marconi S. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutherland S. a 27% chance, the draw 29% and Marconi S. 44%, so Marconi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sutherland S. and 1.5 for Marconi S. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutherland S. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.11 for Marconi S.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 2-4.

Sutherland S. vs Marconi S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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