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U. Catolica vs I. del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 21:30

U. Catolica

PPG 2.67 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

I. del Valle

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-18.1%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.6%1-112.2%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.2%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.6%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 40.3% 2.48 +23.5%

Draw 29.7% 30.3% 3.30 -2.0%

Away win 20.6% 36.4% 2.75 -43.4%

Over 2.5 43.3% 54.1% 1.85 -19.9%

Over 3.5 22.4% 30.8% 3.25 -27.2%

BTTS 48.0% 59.9% 1.67 -19.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. Catolica1.5

I. del Valle0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.3% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

U. CATOLICA · PPG 2.67

I. DEL VALLE · PPG 2.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.67), Away EXCELLENT (2.40)

Win probability 1X2

U. Catolica (H) 49.8%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +23.5%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.0%

I. del Valle (A) 20.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -43.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. Catolica face I. del Valle in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. Catolica a 50% chance, the draw 30% and I. del Valle 21%, so U. Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for U. Catolica and 0.9 for I. del Valle (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. Catolica are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 2.40 for I. del Valle. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 2-3.

U. Catolica vs I. del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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