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Sporting CP B vs Benfica B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 19:30

Sporting CP B

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Benfica B

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.9%0-24.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.6%1-112.6%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-18.9%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.2%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 38.8% 2.58 +9.7%

Draw 30.3% 30.3% 3.30 -0.0%

Away win 27.1% 39.7% 2.52 -31.7%

Over 2.5 45.7% 54.6% 1.83 -16.4%

Over 3.5 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -24.7%

BTTS 52.1% 61.7% 1.62 -15.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.1%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting CP B1.4

Benfica B1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 24.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CP B · PPG 1.40

BENFICA B · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Sporting CP B (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +9.7%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -0.0%

Benfica B (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -31.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting CP B face Benfica B in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting CP B a 43% chance, the draw 30% and Benfica B 27%, so Sporting CP B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sporting CP B and 1.1 for Benfica B (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting CP B are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.07 for Benfica B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Sporting CP B vs Benfica B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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