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Zalaegerszegi vs Puskas A. Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 32 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:00

Zalaegerszegi

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Puskas A.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.0%0-24.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.0%1-112.2%1-26.7%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.2%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.7%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 43.9% 2.28 +2.4%

Draw 29.3% 31.7% 3.15 -7.7%

Away win 25.9% 33.6% 2.98 -22.8%

Over 2.5 48.7% 51.3% 1.95 -5.0%

Over 3.5 26.9% 29.9% 3.35 -9.9%

BTTS 54.1% 58.8% 1.70 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.1%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 0–0 7.3%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zalaegerszegi1.5

Puskas A.1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ZALAEGERSZEGI · PPG 1.75

PUSKAS A. · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Zalaegerszegi (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +2.4%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -7.7%

Puskas A. (A) 25.9%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zalaegerszegi face Puskas A. in Hungary - NB I on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zalaegerszegi a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Puskas A. 26%, so Zalaegerszegi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Zalaegerszegi and 1.1 for Puskas A. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zalaegerszegi are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.50 for Puskas A.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Zalaegerszegi vs Puskas A. Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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