Today / Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg / Suderelbe vs HEBC

Suderelbe vs HEBC Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 21 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:00

Suderelbe

PPG 1.53 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

HEBC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.8%0-22.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-04.1%1-16.8%1-25.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.0%2-18.2%2-26.8%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-04.0%3-16.7%3-25.5%3-33.0%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-17.2%4+-26.0%4+-33.3%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 24.9% — — —

Over 2.5 77.4% — — —

Over 3.5 58.3% — — —

BTTS 74.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob74.8%

H 54% / xG 2.4-1.7 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 75%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 1–1 6.8%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suderelbe2.4

HEBC1.7

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.4% · O3.5 PROB 58.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SUDERELBE · PPG 1.53

HEBC · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Suderelbe (H) 53.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

HEBC (A) 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Suderelbe face HEBC in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suderelbe a 54% chance, the draw 21% and HEBC 25%, so Suderelbe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Suderelbe and 1.7 for HEBC (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 75% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suderelbe are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.00 for HEBC. This match finished 1-0.

Suderelbe vs HEBC Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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