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Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Friday, May 1, 2026 17:00 
Tenerife PPG 2.12 
Barakaldo PPG 0.82
Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Friday, May 1, 2026 17:00 Tenerife PPG 2.122-0 HIT CS4
Barakaldo PPG 0.82Draw· +7.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 39.9% Odds: 2.20 -12.2%
Over 3.5 19.7% Odds: 4.00 -21.2%
BTTS 44.7% Odds: 2.10 -6.1%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 1-0 ✘
3rd 0-0 ✘
4th 2-0 ✔
5th 2-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Tenerife 1.47
Barakaldo 0.81
Model Suggestion
Home -18.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -18.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+7.2%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+7.2%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.12) vs P(Home)=50.8%