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Tenerife vs Barakaldo Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 35 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 17:00

Tenerife

PPG 2.12 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Barakaldo

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-18.3%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.0%1-112.2%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.0%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.4%3-14.4%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 62.5% 1.60 -18.7%

Draw 30.2% 28.2% 3.55 +7.2%

Away win 19.0% 18.5% 5.40 +2.6%

Over 2.5 39.9% 45.5% 2.20 -12.2%

Over 3.5 19.7% 25.0% 4.00 -21.2%

BTTS 44.7% 47.6% 2.10 -6.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.7%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 15.0%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 2–0✓ 11.0%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tenerife1.5

Barakaldo0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.9% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TENERIFE · PPG 2.12

BARAKALDO · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.12) vs P(Home)=50.8%

Win probability 1X2

Tenerife (H) 50.8%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -18.7%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +7.2%

Barakaldo (A) 19.0%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tenerife face Barakaldo in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tenerife a 51% chance, the draw 30% and Barakaldo 19%, so Tenerife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tenerife and 0.8 for Barakaldo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tenerife are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.82 for Barakaldo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Tenerife vs Barakaldo Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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