Zamalek vs Al Ahly Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Egypt - Premier League Championship Group - 5 Cairo International Stadium· Cairo Friday, May 1, 2026 17:00

Zamalek PPG 2.33

0-3 MISS

Al Ahly PPG 1.50

Home· +70.8% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Zamalek face Al Ahly in Egypt - Premier League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zamalek a 47% chance, the draw 31% and Al Ahly 22%, so Zamalek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Zamalek and 0.9 for Al Ahly (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zamalek are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Al Ahly. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +70.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.8%

Odds: 3.65 EV: +70.8%

Draw 31.0%

Odds: 3.05 EV: -5.5%

Away 22.2%

Odds: 2.05 EV: -54.5%

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 40.3% Odds: 2.30 -7.3%

Over 3.5 20.0% Odds: 4.20 -16.0%

BTTS 46.5% Odds: 1.93 -10.3%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Zamalek

1.40

Al Ahly

0.90

Model SuggestionNo Bet  ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=46.8%