Today / Egypt - Premier League / Zamalek vs Al Ahly

Zamalek vs Al Ahly Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Championship Group - 5 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 17:00

Zamalek

PPG 2.33 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Al Ahly

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-19.0%0-24.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.1%1-112.6%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-18.8%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.6%3-14.1%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 27.4% 3.65 +70.8%

Draw 31.0% 32.8% 3.05 -5.5%

Away win 22.2% 48.8% 2.05 -54.5%

Over 2.5 40.3% 43.5% 2.30 -7.3%

Over 3.5 20.0% 23.8% 4.20 -16.0%

BTTS 46.5% 51.8% 1.93 -10.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.5%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zamalek1.4

Al Ahly0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAMALEK · PPG 2.33

AL AHLY · PPG 1.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=46.8%

Win probability 1X2

Zamalek (H) 46.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +70.8%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -5.5%

Al Ahly (A) 22.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -54.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zamalek face Al Ahly in Egypt - Premier League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zamalek a 47% chance, the draw 31% and Al Ahly 22%, so Zamalek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Zamalek and 0.9 for Al Ahly (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zamalek are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Al Ahly. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +70.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Zamalek vs Al Ahly Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Egypt - Premier League Predictions