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Real Union vs Alfaro Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 34 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 15:00

Real Union

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Alfaro

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-13.9%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.6%1-18.8%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.0%3-17.3%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-16.8%4+-23.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.9% 80.0% 1.25 -17.6%

Draw 21.4% 20.0% 5.00 +7.0%

Away win 12.7% 10.5% 9.50 +20.6%

Over 2.5 60.7% — — —

Over 3.5 38.4% — — —

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 66% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 10.7%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Union2.2

Alfaro0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL UNION · PPG 2.00

ALFARO · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.38) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Real Union (H) 65.9%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -17.6%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +7.0%

Alfaro (A) 12.7%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Union face Alfaro in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Union a 66% chance, the draw 21% and Alfaro 13%, so Real Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Real Union and 0.9 for Alfaro (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Union are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.38 for Alfaro. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Real Union vs Alfaro Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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