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Real Union vs Alfaro Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 logo Spain flag Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Group 2 - 34 Stadium Gal· Irun Friday, May 1, 2026 15:00
Real Union logo Real Union PPG 2.00
2-0 HIT MostLikelyScore
Alfaro logo Alfaro PPG 0.38
Away· +20.6% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Union face Alfaro in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Union a 66% chance, the draw 21% and Alfaro 13%, so Real Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Real Union and 0.9 for Alfaro (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Union are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.38 for Alfaro. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 65.9%
Odds: 1.25 EV: -17.6%
Draw 21.4%
Odds: 5.00 EV: +7.0%
Away 12.7%
Odds: 9.50 EV: +20.6%
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.7% Odds: —
Over 3.5 38.4% Odds: —
BTTS 54.7% Odds: 1.80 -1.5%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 1-1
3rd 2-1
4th 1-0
5th 3-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Real Union
2.23
Alfaro
0.91

Model Suggestion

Home -17.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -17.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+20.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
95%
STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.38) - Strong consensus

PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not provide financial or betting advice. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org