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SD Logrones vs Real Zaragoza B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:00

SD Logrones

PPG 1.27 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Real Zaragoza B

PPG 0.53 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-19.9%0-23.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.6%1-112.5%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.1%2-17.9%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.7%3-13.3%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 65.4% 1.53 -24.1%

Draw 29.5% 28.6% 3.50 +3.3%

Away win 20.9% 17.9% 5.60 +17.0%

Over 2.5 31.5% 52.6% 1.90 -40.2%

Over 3.5 13.7% — — —

BTTS 36.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob36.4%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 17.6%

#2 0–0 13.9%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SD Logrones1.3

Real Zaragoza B0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.5% · O3.5 PROB 13.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SD LOGRONES · PPG 1.27

REAL ZARAGOZA B · PPG 0.53

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.27) > Away POOR (0.53)

Win probability 1X2

SD Logrones (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -24.1%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +3.3%

Real Zaragoza B (A) 20.9%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

SD Logrones face Real Zaragoza B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SD Logrones a 50% chance, the draw 30% and Real Zaragoza B 21%, so SD Logrones are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for SD Logrones and 0.7 for Real Zaragoza B (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SD Logrones are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.53 for Real Zaragoza B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 1-0.

SD Logrones vs Real Zaragoza B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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