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Real Zaragoza B vs Real Union Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Real Zaragoza B

PPG 1.06 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Real Union

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-110.4%0-211.0%0-37.8%0-4+6.7%1 1-04.4%1-19.3%1-29.9%1-37.0%1-4+6.0%2 2-02.0%2-14.2%2-24.4%2-33.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.6%3-11.2%3-21.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.8% 24.4% 4.10 -39.3%

Draw 27.0% 27.4% 3.65 -1.5%

Away win 58.2% 59.9% 1.67 -2.8%

Over 2.5 59.0% 64.5% 1.55 -8.6%

Over 3.5 35.6% — — —

BTTS 57.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob57.8%

A 58% / xG 0.9-2.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.0%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 0–3 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Zaragoza B0.9

Real Union2.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL ZARAGOZA B · PPG 1.06

REAL UNION · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Real Zaragoza B (H) 14.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -39.3%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.5%

Real Union (A) 58.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Zaragoza B face Real Union in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Zaragoza B a 15% chance, the draw 27% and Real Union 58%, so Real Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Real Zaragoza B and 2.1 for Real Union (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Zaragoza B are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 2.13 for Real Union. This match finished 3-1.

Real Zaragoza B vs Real Union Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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