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Alfaro vs SD Logrones Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Alfaro

PPG 1.19 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

SD Logrones

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-19.7%0-23.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.1%1-112.5%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-18.1%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.8%3-13.5%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 19.2% 5.20 +135.6%

Draw 30.4% 27.4% 3.65 +11.0%

Away win 24.4% 65.4% 1.53 -62.7%

Over 2.5 44.4% 54.1% 1.85 -17.9%

Over 3.5 14.8% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.5%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.1%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alfaro1.3

SD Logrones0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 14.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ALFARO · PPG 1.19

SD LOGRONES · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.19) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Alfaro (H) 45.3%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +135.6%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +11.0%

SD Logrones (A) 24.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -62.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alfaro face SD Logrones in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alfaro a 45% chance, the draw 30% and SD Logrones 24%, so Alfaro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Alfaro and 0.7 for SD Logrones (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alfaro are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.75 for SD Logrones. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +135.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Alfaro vs SD Logrones Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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