Today / Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 / Basconia vs Gernika
Basconia vs Gernika Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Group 2 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 56% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%
Form & verdict
BASCONIA · PPG 1.60
GERNIKA · PPG 1.00
Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Basconia face Gernika in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Basconia a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Gernika 21%, so Basconia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Basconia and 0.9 for Gernika (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Basconia are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Gernika. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 0-0.