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Naxara vs Beasain Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Naxara

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Beasain

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.94)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-17.3%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.8%1-111.8%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.6%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.2%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 43.5% 2.30 +6.5%

Draw 28.3% 32.3% 3.10 -12.3%

Away win 25.4% 35.7% 2.80 -28.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 52.6% 1.90 -4.0%

Over 3.5 26.9% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0✓ 11.8%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Naxara1.6

Beasain1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NAXARA · PPG 1.25

BEASAIN · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Naxara (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +6.5%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.3%

Beasain (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Naxara face Beasain in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Naxara a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Beasain 25%, so Naxara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Naxara and 1.0 for Beasain (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Naxara are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.94 for Beasain. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Naxara vs Beasain Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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