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Utebo vs Ebro Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Utebo

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ebro

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.4%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.5%1-110.3%1-25.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.8%3-16.3%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.7%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 45.5% 2.20 +2.3%

Draw 28.4% 32.3% 3.10 -12.0%

Away win 25.0% 34.5% 2.90 -27.5%

Over 2.5 59.0% 50.0% 2.00 +18.0%

Over 3.5 35.5% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0✓ 9.5%

#5 0–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Utebo1.9

Ebro1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UTEBO · PPG 1.88

EBRO · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Utebo (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +2.3%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.0%

Ebro (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Utebo face Ebro in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Utebo a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Ebro 25%, so Utebo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Utebo and 1.1 for Ebro (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Utebo are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.31 for Ebro. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Utebo vs Ebro Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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