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Amorebieta vs Sestao River Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Amorebieta

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Sestao River

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-111.1%0-24.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.7%1-112.8%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.2%2-17.4%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.9%3-12.8%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 32.3% 3.10 +30.5%

Draw 31.8% 33.3% 3.00 -4.6%

Away win 26.1% 46.5% 2.15 -43.9%

Over 2.5 38.0% 44.4% 2.25 -14.5%

Over 3.5 12.1% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.5%

H 42% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–0 17.7%

#3 1–1✓ 12.8%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 0–1 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Amorebieta1.2

Sestao River0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AMOREBIETA · PPG 1.56

SESTAO RIVER · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Amorebieta (H) 42.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +30.5%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -4.6%

Sestao River (A) 26.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -43.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Amorebieta face Sestao River in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Amorebieta a 42% chance, the draw 32% and Sestao River 26%, so Amorebieta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Amorebieta and 0.7 for Sestao River (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Amorebieta are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.25 for Sestao River. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Amorebieta vs Sestao River Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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