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Amorebieta vs Sestao River Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 logo Spain flag Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Group 2 - 33 Campo Municipal de Urritxe· Amorebieta-Etxano Sunday, April 26, 2026 10:00
Amorebieta logo Amorebieta PPG 1.56
1-1 HIT CS3
Sestao River logo Sestao River PPG 1.25
Home· +30.5% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Amorebieta face Sestao River in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Amorebieta a 42% chance, the draw 32% and Sestao River 26%, so Amorebieta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Amorebieta and 0.7 for Sestao River (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Amorebieta are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.25 for Sestao River. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.1%
Odds: 3.10 EV: +30.5%
Draw 31.8%
Odds: 3.00 EV: -4.6%
Away 26.1%
Odds: 2.15 EV: -43.9%
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 38.0% Odds: 2.25 -14.5%
Over 3.5 12.1% Odds: —
BTTS 49.5% Odds: —
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0
2nd 1-0
3rd 1-1
4th 2-0
5th 0-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Amorebieta
1.15
Sestao River
0.72

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%
O2.5/Under 53%
BTTS/No 53%
Score Hit 63%

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not provide financial or betting advice. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org