Alfaro vs Naxara Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Group 2 - 32 Sunday, April 19, 2026 15:00

Alfaro PPG 1.07

2-1 HIT CS4

Naxara PPG 1.20

Home· +44.8% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Alfaro face Naxara in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alfaro a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Naxara 37%, so Alfaro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Alfaro and 1.3 for Naxara (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alfaro are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.20 for Naxara. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +44.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.6%

Odds: 3.85 EV: +44.8%

Draw 25.9%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -13.2%

Away 36.6%

Odds: 1.80 EV: -34.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.5% Odds: 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.4% Odds: — —

BTTS 54.7% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✔

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Alfaro

1.36

Naxara

1.33

Model SuggestionBTTS  NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is — at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+44.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5/Under 53%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 63%

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.20)