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Alfaro vs Naxara Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:00

Alfaro

PPG 1.07 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Naxara

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.0%0-26.0%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.2%1-112.3%1-28.2%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.2%2-18.3%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.8%3-13.8%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 26.0% 3.85 +44.8%

Draw 25.9% 29.9% 3.35 -13.2%

Away win 36.6% 55.6% 1.80 -34.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.4% — — —

BTTS 54.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 9.2%

#3 0–1 9.0%

#4 2–1✓ 8.3%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alfaro1.4

Naxara1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALFARO · PPG 1.07

NAXARA · PPG 1.20

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Alfaro (H) 37.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +44.8%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.2%

Naxara (A) 36.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -34.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alfaro face Naxara in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alfaro a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Naxara 37%, so Alfaro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Alfaro and 1.3 for Naxara (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alfaro are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.20 for Naxara. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +44.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Alfaro vs Naxara Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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