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UD Logrones vs Mutilvera Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

UD Logrones

PPG 2.19 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mutilvera

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.4%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.0%1-11.9%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-06.5%2-14.1%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.4%3-15.9%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-033.6%4+-121.2%4+-26.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.3% 90.9% 1.10 -15.0%

Draw 16.1% 15.4% 6.50 +4.7%

Away win 6.6% 5.3% 19.00 +25.4%

Over 2.5 79.5% — — —

Over 3.5 73.2% 54.1% 1.85 +35.4%

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)4.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob52.6%

H 77% / xG 4.3-0.6 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 10.3%

#2 3–0✓ 9.4%

#3 5–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 4–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UD Logrones4.3

Mutilvera0.6

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 73.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UD LOGRONES · PPG 2.19

MUTILVERA · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.19), Away POOR (0.88) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

UD Logrones (H) 77.3%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -15.0%

Draw 16.1%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +4.7%

Mutilvera (A) 6.6%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV +25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

UD Logrones face Mutilvera in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UD Logrones a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Mutilvera 7%, so UD Logrones are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.3 for UD Logrones and 0.6 for Mutilvera (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UD Logrones are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 0.88 for Mutilvera. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.4%. This match finished 3-0.

UD Logrones vs Mutilvera Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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