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Maritimo vs Leixoes Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 32 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 14:30

Maritimo

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Leixoes

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Home 52% chance

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 53.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-17.7%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.0%1-112.0%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.4%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.3%3-14.9%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 53.2% 1.88 -5.3%

Draw 29.0% 30.3% 3.30 -4.3%

Away win 20.6% 25.6% 3.90 -19.7%

Over 2.5 45.3% 51.3% 1.95 -11.7%

Over 3.5 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -18.4%

BTTS 49.6% 56.5% 1.77 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.6%

H 50% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maritimo1.6

Leixoes0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.3% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MARITIMO · PPG 1.87

LEIXOES · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.87) > Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Maritimo (H) 50.4%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -5.3%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.3%

Leixoes (A) 20.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maritimo face Leixoes in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maritimo a 50% chance, the draw 29% and Leixoes 21%, so Maritimo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Maritimo and 0.9 for Leixoes (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maritimo are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.47 for Leixoes. This match finished 3-2.

Maritimo vs Leixoes Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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