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Celta Vigo B vs Osasuna B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 35 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 14:15

Celta Vigo B

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Osasuna B

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-18.1%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-112.1%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.6%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 60.6% 1.65 -15.8%

Draw 29.8% 27.4% 3.65 +8.8%

Away win 19.2% 21.7% 4.60 -11.7%

Over 2.5 41.4% 51.8% 1.93 -20.1%

Over 3.5 20.9% 29.9% 3.35 -30.0%

BTTS 45.9% 54.1% 1.85 -15.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.9%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celta Vigo B1.5

Osasuna B0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTA VIGO B · PPG 2.00

OSASUNA B · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Celta Vigo B (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -15.8%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +8.8%

Osasuna B (A) 19.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celta Vigo B face Osasuna B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celta Vigo B a 51% chance, the draw 30% and Osasuna B 19%, so Celta Vigo B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Celta Vigo B and 0.8 for Osasuna B (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celta Vigo B are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.88 for Osasuna B. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Celta Vigo B vs Osasuna B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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