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Jamshedpur vs Goa Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 14:00

Jamshedpur

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Goa

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-114.0%0-26.6%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.3%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.9%2-16.5%2-23.1%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% 36.4% 2.75 -10.3%

Draw 35.8% 32.3% 3.10 +11.0%

Away win 31.6% 41.7% 2.40 -24.2%

Over 2.5 29.9% 50.0% 2.00 -40.2%

Over 3.5 12.7% 27.8% 3.60 -54.3%

BTTS 39.9% 57.8% 1.73 -31.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob39.9%

D 36% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.8%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 0–1 14.0%

#5 2–0✓ 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jamshedpur1.0

Goa0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.9% · O3.5 PROB 12.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JAMSHEDPUR · PPG 2.33

GOA · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Jamshedpur (H) 32.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -10.3%

Draw 35.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +11.0%

Goa (A) 31.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jamshedpur face Goa in India - Indian Super League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jamshedpur a 33% chance, the draw 36% and Goa 32%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 1.0 for Jamshedpur and 0.9 for Goa (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jamshedpur are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.80 for Goa. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Jamshedpur vs Goa Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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