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Paide vs Tammeka Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 14:00

Paide

PPG 2.25 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Tammeka

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.6%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.7%1-19.6%1-24.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.0%3-16.9%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-15.8%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.0% 69.4% 1.44 -12.2%

Draw 23.3% 25.0% 4.00 -6.8%

Away win 15.7% 18.2% 5.50 -13.7%

Over 2.5 59.2% — — —

Over 3.5 36.8% — — —

BTTS 56.4% 65.4% 1.53 -13.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob56.4%

H 61% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paide2.1

Tammeka1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PAIDE · PPG 2.25

TAMMEKA · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=61.0%

Win probability 1X2

Paide (H) 61.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -12.2%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.8%

Tammeka (A) 15.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paide face Tammeka in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paide a 61% chance, the draw 23% and Tammeka 16%, so Paide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Paide and 1.0 for Tammeka (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paide are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.80 for Tammeka. This match finished 0-1.

Paide vs Tammeka Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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