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Academico Viseu vs Feirense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Portugal - Segunda Liga logo Portugal flag Portugal - Segunda Liga Regular Season - 30 Estádio Municipal do Fontelo· Viseu Friday, April 17, 2026 17:45
Academico Viseu logo Academico Viseu PPG 2.21
3-0 MISS
Feirense logo Feirense PPG 1.29
Over3.5· +18.8% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form
80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Academico Viseu face Feirense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Academico Viseu a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Feirense 21%, so Academico Viseu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Academico Viseu and 1.0 for Feirense (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Academico Viseu are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.29 for Feirense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 55.8%
Odds: 1.77 EV: -1.2%
Draw 23.4%
Odds: 3.30 EV: -22.8%
Away 20.9%
Odds: 4.45 EV: -7.0%
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.9% Odds: 2.20 +14.2%
Over 3.5 29.7% Odds: 4.00 +18.8%
BTTS 51.9% Odds: 2.00 +3.8%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 1-1
3rd 2-0
4th 2-1
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Academico Viseu
1.77
Feirense
0.98

Model Suggestion

Home -1.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -1.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Over3.5 (+18.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%
O2.5/Under 45%
BTTS/No 38%
Score Hit 41%
ROI -45.7%
Bet Hit 30% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.21) vs P(Home)=55.8%

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