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Academico Viseu vs Feirense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:45

Academico Viseu

PPG 2.21 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Feirense

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

Home 56% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.3%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.3%1-111.1%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.9%3-15.8%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 56.5% 1.77 -1.2%

Draw 23.4% 30.3% 3.30 -22.8%

Away win 20.9% 22.5% 4.45 -7.0%

Over 2.5 51.9% 45.5% 2.20 +14.2%

Over 3.5 29.7% 25.0% 4.00 +18.8%

BTTS 51.9% 50.0% 2.00 +3.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.9%

H 56% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.3%

#2 1–1 11.1%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Academico Viseu1.8

Feirense1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ACADEMICO VISEU · PPG 2.21

FEIRENSE · PPG 1.29

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.21) vs P(Home)=55.8%

Win probability 1X2

Academico Viseu (H) 55.8%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -1.2%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -22.8%

Feirense (A) 20.9%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Academico Viseu face Feirense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Academico Viseu a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Feirense 21%, so Academico Viseu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Academico Viseu and 1.0 for Feirense (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Academico Viseu are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.29 for Feirense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Academico Viseu vs Feirense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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