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Ceramica C. vs Al Masry Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Championship Group - 5 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 14:00

Ceramica C.

PPG 2.18 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Al Masry

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-19.4%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.4%1-112.8%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-18.7%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-14.0%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 40.0% 2.50 +10.8%

Draw 31.3% 34.5% 2.90 -9.2%

Away win 24.4% 34.5% 2.90 -29.2%

Over 2.5 40.9% 45.5% 2.20 -10.0%

Over 3.5 20.4% 25.0% 4.00 -18.4%

BTTS 47.7% 55.6% 1.80 -14.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.7%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceramica C.1.4

Al Masry1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CERAMICA C. · PPG 2.18

AL MASRY · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.18) vs P(Home)=44.3%

Win probability 1X2

Ceramica C. (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +10.8%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.2%

Al Masry (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -29.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceramica C. face Al Masry in Egypt - Premier League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceramica C. a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Al Masry 24%, so Ceramica C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ceramica C. and 1.0 for Al Masry (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceramica C. are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.25 for Al Masry. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Ceramica C. vs Al Masry Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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