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SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 26 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 12:30

SK Poltava

PPG 0.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kryvbas KR

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-18.1%0-28.5%0-35.9%0-4+5.1%1 1-04.4%1-19.3%1-29.8%1-36.9%1-4+5.9%2 2-02.6%2-15.4%2-25.7%2-34.0%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.0%3-12.1%3-22.2%3-31.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.9% 14.3% 7.00 +32.3%

Draw 23.5% 23.8% 4.20 -1.3%

Away win 57.6% 71.4% 1.40 -19.4%

Over 2.5 63.2% 62.5% 1.60 +1.1%

Over 3.5 41.1% 40.0% 2.50 +2.8%

BTTS 61.6% 57.8% 1.73 +6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob61.6%

A 58% / xG 1.2-2.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.5%

#4 1–3 6.9%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SK Poltava1.2

Kryvbas KR2.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SK POLTAVA · PPG 0.42

KRYVBAS KR · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.42)

Win probability 1X2

SK Poltava (H) 18.9%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +32.3%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.3%

Kryvbas KR (A) 57.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

SK Poltava face Kryvbas KR in Ukraine - Premier League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SK Poltava a 19% chance, the draw 24% and Kryvbas KR 58%, so Kryvbas KR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for SK Poltava and 2.1 for Kryvbas KR (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SK Poltava are averaging 0.42 points per game versus 1.33 for Kryvbas KR. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 3-3.

SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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