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Muang Thong Utd vs Pathum Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 29 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 12:00

Muang Thong Utd

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Pathum Utd

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-112.4%0-29.1%0-34.4%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.5%1-112.5%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.3%2-16.3%2-24.6%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.4%3-12.1%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.1% 47.6% 2.10 -49.4%

Draw 30.1% 29.9% 3.35 +0.8%

Away win 45.8% 33.3% 3.00 +37.4%

Over 2.5 44.8% 56.5% 1.77 -20.7%

Over 3.5 23.6% 33.9% 2.95 -30.4%

BTTS 50.6% 62.5% 1.60 -19.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob50.6%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.5%

#2 0–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Muang Thong Utd1.0

Pathum Utd1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MUANG THONG UTD · PPG 1.29

PATHUM UTD · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Muang Thong Utd (H) 24.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -49.4%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +0.8%

Pathum Utd (A) 45.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +37.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Muang Thong Utd face Pathum Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Muang Thong Utd a 24% chance, the draw 30% and Pathum Utd 46%, so Pathum Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Muang Thong Utd and 1.5 for Pathum Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Muang Thong Utd are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.50 for Pathum Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Muang Thong Utd vs Pathum Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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