Shirak vs Ararat Yerevan Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Armenia - Premier League Regular Season - 24 Gyumri City Stadium· Gyumri Friday, May 1, 2026 12:00

Shirak PPG 0.73

0-2 MISS

Ararat Yerevan PPG 0.33

Home· +2.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Shirak face Ararat Yerevan in Armenia - Premier League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shirak a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Ararat Yerevan 25%, so Shirak are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Shirak and 1.1 for Ararat Yerevan (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shirak are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 0.33 for Ararat Yerevan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.7%

Odds: 2.20 EV: +2.7%

Draw 28.6%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -5.6%

Away 24.7%

Odds: 2.90 EV: -28.4%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.3% Odds: 1.93 -2.9%

Over 3.5 28.2% Odds: 3.35 -5.5%

BTTS 54.8% Odds: 1.70 -6.8%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Shirak

1.58

Ararat Yerevan

1.10

Model SuggestionBTTS -6.8% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -42.6%

Bet Hit 43% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.73) > Away POOR (0.33)