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Shirak vs Ararat Yerevan Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 24 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 12:00

Shirak

PPG 0.73 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ararat Yerevan

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.5%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.8%1-111.9%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-15.0%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 45.5% 2.20 +2.7%

Draw 28.6% 30.3% 3.30 -5.6%

Away win 24.7% 34.5% 2.90 -28.4%

Over 2.5 50.3% 51.8% 1.93 -2.9%

Over 3.5 28.2% 29.9% 3.35 -5.5%

BTTS 54.8% 58.8% 1.70 -6.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.8%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 0–0 6.8%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shirak1.6

Ararat Yerevan1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SHIRAK · PPG 0.73

ARARAT YEREVAN · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.73) > Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Shirak (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +2.7%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.6%

Ararat Yerevan (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -28.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shirak face Ararat Yerevan in Armenia - Premier League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shirak a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Ararat Yerevan 25%, so Shirak are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Shirak and 1.1 for Ararat Yerevan (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shirak are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 0.33 for Ararat Yerevan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Shirak vs Ararat Yerevan Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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