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Bentleigh G. vs St. Albans Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 10:30

Bentleigh G.

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

St. Albans

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=62.8%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-15.2%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.8%1-110.0%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.9%3-16.2%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-14.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.8% — — —

Draw 24.2% — — —

Away win 13.0% — — —

Over 2.5 50.8% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 47.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.8%

H 63% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–1 10.0%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bentleigh G.1.9

St. Albans0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BENTLEIGH G. · PPG 2.50

ST. ALBANS · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=62.8%

Win probability 1X2

Bentleigh G. (H) 62.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

St. Albans (A) 13.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bentleigh G. face St. Albans in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bentleigh G. a 63% chance, the draw 24% and St. Albans 13%, so Bentleigh G. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Bentleigh G. and 0.8 for St. Albans (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bentleigh G. are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.20 for St. Albans. This match finished 2-4.

Bentleigh G. vs St. Albans Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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