Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / Green Gully vs Oakleigh C.

Green Gully vs Oakleigh C. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 09:30

Green Gully

PPG 0.25 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Oakleigh C.

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-19.8%0-211.8%0-39.5%0-4+10.1%1 1-03.2%1-17.8%1-29.4%1-37.5%1-4+8.0%2 2-01.3%2-13.1%2-23.7%2-33.0%2-4+3.2%3 3-00.3%3-10.8%3-21.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.3% — — —

Draw 18.8% — — —

Away win 72.0% — — —

Over 2.5 62.1% — — —

Over 3.5 39.8% — — —

BTTS 51.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob51.0%

A 72% / xG 0.8-2.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.8%

#2 0–3 9.5%

#3 1–2 9.4%

#4 1–1 7.8%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Green Gully0.8

Oakleigh C.2.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.25

OAKLEIGH C. · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Green Gully (H) 9.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Oakleigh C. (A) 72.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Green Gully face Oakleigh C. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Green Gully a 9% chance, the draw 19% and Oakleigh C. 72%, so Oakleigh C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Green Gully and 2.4 for Oakleigh C. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Green Gully are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 2.00 for Oakleigh C.. This match finished 0-5.

Green Gully vs Oakleigh C. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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