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Sheffield U U21 vs Bristol C. U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Monday, April 13, 2026

Sheffield U U21

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bristol C. U21

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-14.3%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.7%1-18.9%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-19.2%2-23.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.8%3-16.3%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-15.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.6% 69.4% 1.44 +1.7%

Draw 18.9% 20.8% 4.80 -9.3%

Away win 10.5% 20.0% 5.00 -47.5%

Over 2.5 51.1% — — —

Over 3.5 29.0% — — —

BTTS 41.7% 71.4% 1.40 -41.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 18%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.7%

H 71% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.1%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 3–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 1–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sheffield U U212.1

Bristol C. U210.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SHEFFIELD U U21 · PPG 2.17

BRISTOL C. U21 · PPG 0.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.17), Away POOR (0.77) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sheffield U U21 (H) 70.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +1.7%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -9.3%

Bristol C. U21 (A) 10.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -47.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sheffield U U21 face Bristol C. U21 in England - Professional Development League on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sheffield U U21 a 71% chance, the draw 19% and Bristol C. U21 11%, so Sheffield U U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sheffield U U21 and 0.6 for Bristol C. U21 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sheffield U U21 are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.77 for Bristol C. U21. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.7%.

Sheffield U U21 vs Bristol C. U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Match Preview & Prediction

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