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Giessen vs TuBa Pohlheim Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Hessen - 26 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 16:30

Giessen

PPG 2.31 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

TuBa Pohlheim

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.5%0-23.0%0-31.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.4%1-17.6%1-26.5%1-33.7%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.5%3-16.0%3-25.2%3-32.9%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-15.5%4+-24.7%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 29.5% — — —

Over 2.5 74.6% — — —

Over 3.5 54.5% — — —

BTTS 73.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob73.8%

H 48% / xG 2.2-1.7 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 7.6%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Giessen2.2

TuBa Pohlheim1.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.6% · O3.5 PROB 54.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GIESSEN · PPG 2.31

TUBA POHLHEIM · PPG 1.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.31) > Away GOOD (1.79)

Win probability 1X2

Giessen (H) 47.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

TuBa Pohlheim (A) 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Giessen face TuBa Pohlheim in Germany - Oberliga - Hessen on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Giessen a 48% chance, the draw 23% and TuBa Pohlheim 30%, so Giessen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Giessen and 1.7 for TuBa Pohlheim (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Giessen are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.79 for TuBa Pohlheim. This match finished 1-1.

Giessen vs TuBa Pohlheim Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Match Preview & Prediction

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