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Darmstadt B vs TuBa Pohlheim Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Hessen - 33 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:00

Darmstadt B

PPG 1.19 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

TuBa Pohlheim

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.4%0-22.9%0-32.4%0-4+2.7%1 1-02.1%1-15.2%1-26.4%1-35.3%1-4+5.9%2 2-02.3%2-15.6%2-26.9%2-35.7%2-4+6.4%3 3-01.6%3-14.1%3-25.0%3-34.1%3-4+4.6%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-13.6%4+-24.5%4+-33.7%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 41.7% — — —

Over 2.5 73.3% — — —

Over 3.5 68.2% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob66.7%

A 42% / xG 2.2-2.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.9%

#2 1–2 6.4%

#3 1–1 5.2%

#4 2–3 5.7%

#5 2–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Darmstadt B2.2

TuBa Pohlheim2.5

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 68.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DARMSTADT B · PPG 1.19

TUBA POHLHEIM · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.19) vs Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Darmstadt B (H) 35.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

TuBa Pohlheim (A) 41.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Darmstadt B face TuBa Pohlheim in Germany - Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Darmstadt B a 36% chance, the draw 23% and TuBa Pohlheim 42%, so TuBa Pohlheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Darmstadt B and 2.5 for TuBa Pohlheim (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Darmstadt B are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.63 for TuBa Pohlheim. This match finished 5-1.

Darmstadt B vs TuBa Pohlheim Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Match Preview & Prediction

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