Today / Germany - Oberliga - Hessen / Giessen vs Fernwald

Giessen vs Fernwald Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Hessen - 33 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 12:00

Giessen

PPG 2.07 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Fernwald

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.1%0-22.7%0-31.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.1%1-17.1%1-26.2%1-33.5%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.0%2-34.0%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.6%3-16.2%3-25.4%3-33.1%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-16.1%4+-25.3%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% — — —

Draw 22.7% — — —

Away win 25.7% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 56.9% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.0%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.1%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.2%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Giessen2.3

Fernwald1.7

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GIESSEN · PPG 2.07

FERNWALD · PPG 1.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs P(Home)=51.6%

Win probability 1X2

Giessen (H) 51.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fernwald (A) 25.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Giessen face Fernwald in Germany - Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Giessen a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Fernwald 26%, so Giessen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Giessen and 1.7 for Fernwald (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Giessen are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.24 for Fernwald. This match finished 2-0.

Giessen vs Fernwald Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Oberliga - Hessen Predictions