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Hummetroth vs Friedberg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Hessen - 34 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 13:00

Hummetroth

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Friedberg

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.5%0-23.0%0-31.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.5%1-17.7%1-26.5%1-33.7%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.9%2-18.4%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.6%3-16.1%3-25.1%3-32.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-15.5%4+-24.6%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 35.4% — — —

Over 2.5 65.8% — — —

Over 3.5 44.3% — — —

BTTS 63.4% — — —

Home O1.5 63.9% — — —

Away O1.5 50.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.4%

H 43% / xG 2.2-1.7 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 2–2✓ 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hummetroth2.2

Friedberg1.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HUMMETROTH · PPG 1.53

FRIEDBERG · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Hummetroth (H) 43.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Friedberg (A) 35.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hummetroth face Friedberg in Germany - Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hummetroth a 43% chance, the draw 21% and Friedberg 35%, so Hummetroth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Hummetroth and 1.7 for Friedberg (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hummetroth are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.33 for Friedberg. This match finished 2-2.

Hummetroth vs Friedberg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Match Preview & Prediction

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