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Marburg vs Weidenhausen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Hessen - 34 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 13:00

Marburg

PPG 1.31 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Weidenhausen

PPG 0.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.31) vs P(Home)=56.7%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.6%0-22.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.5%1-18.2%1-25.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.4%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.7%3-17.2%3-24.6%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-17.1%4+-24.5%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 21.9% — — —

Over 2.5 65.7% — — —

Over 3.5 43.1% — — —

BTTS 61.0% — — —

Home O1.5 66.8% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.0%

H 57% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marburg2.3

Weidenhausen1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MARBURG · PPG 1.31

WEIDENHAUSEN · PPG 0.35

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.31) vs P(Home)=56.7%

Win probability 1X2

Marburg (H) 56.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Weidenhausen (A) 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Marburg face Weidenhausen in Germany - Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marburg a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Weidenhausen 22%, so Marburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Marburg and 1.3 for Weidenhausen (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marburg are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.35 for Weidenhausen. This match finished 5-0.

Marburg vs Weidenhausen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Match Preview & Prediction

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