Stockport vs Port Vale Prediction— England - League One

England - League One Regular Season - 43 Edgeley Park· Stockport Tuesday, April 28, 2026 18:45

Stockport PPG 1.95

1-2 MISS

Port Vale PPG 0.82

Away· +87.9% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Stockport face Port Vale in England - League One on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stockport a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Port Vale 24%, so Stockport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Stockport and 0.8 for Port Vale (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stockport are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 0.82 for Port Vale. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +87.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.3%

Odds: 1.38 EV: -37.5%

Draw 30.4%

Odds: 4.70 EV: +42.9%

Away 24.4%

Odds: 7.70 EV: +87.9%

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.9% Odds: 1.62 -20.8%

Over 3.5 19.6% Odds: 2.55 -50.0%

BTTS 49.7% Odds: 1.80 -10.5%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Stockport

1.48

Port Vale

0.80

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5/Under 51%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -55.8%

Bet Hit 26% (23 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.95) vs P(Home)=45.3%