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Stockport vs Port Vale Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 43 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 18:45

Stockport

PPG 1.95 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Port Vale

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-18.2%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.1%1-112.1%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.0%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.5%3-14.4%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 72.5% 1.38 -37.5%

Draw 30.4% 21.3% 4.70 +42.9%

Away win 24.4% 13.0% 7.70 +87.9%

Over 2.5 48.9% 61.7% 1.62 -20.8%

Over 3.5 19.6% 39.2% 2.55 -50.0%

BTTS 49.7% 55.6% 1.80 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.7%

H 45% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 15.1%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stockport1.5

Port Vale0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

STOCKPORT · PPG 1.95

PORT VALE · PPG 0.82

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.95) vs P(Home)=45.3%

Win probability 1X2

Stockport (H) 45.3%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -37.5%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +42.9%

Port Vale (A) 24.4%

ODDS 7.70 · IMPLIED 13.0% EV +87.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stockport face Port Vale in England - League One on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stockport a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Port Vale 24%, so Stockport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Stockport and 0.8 for Port Vale (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stockport are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 0.82 for Port Vale. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +87.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Stockport vs Port Vale Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - League One Predictions