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Peterborough vs Mansfield Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 40 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 18:45

Peterborough

PPG 1.38 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Mansfield

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-111.1%0-28.8%0-34.7%0-4+2.6%1 1-07.5%1-111.9%1-29.5%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.0%2-16.4%2-25.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.4%3-12.3%3-21.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 39.7% 2.52 -27.4%

Draw 29.8% 27.8% 3.60 +7.3%

Away win 41.5% 39.7% 2.52 +4.6%

Over 2.5 51.3% 61.7% 1.62 -16.9%

Over 3.5 27.8% 39.2% 2.55 -29.1%

BTTS 57.8% 67.6% 1.48 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob57.8%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 11.1%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 0–0✓ 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Peterborough1.1

Mansfield1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PETERBOROUGH · PPG 1.38

MANSFIELD · PPG 1.32

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.32)

Win probability 1X2

Peterborough (H) 28.8%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -27.4%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +7.3%

Mansfield (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Peterborough face Mansfield in England - League One on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peterborough a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Mansfield 42%, so Mansfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Peterborough and 1.6 for Mansfield (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peterborough are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.32 for Mansfield. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Peterborough vs Mansfield Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - League One Predictions