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Northampton vs Barnsley Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 40 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 18:45

Northampton

PPG 1.05 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Barnsley

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-110.7%0-210.5%0-36.8%0-4+5.2%1 1-05.2%1-110.2%1-29.9%1-36.5%1-4+5.0%2 2-02.5%2-14.8%2-24.7%2-33.1%2-4+2.4%3 3-00.8%3-11.5%3-21.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.2% 34.7% 2.88 -47.6%

Draw 28.4% 27.8% 3.60 +2.2%

Away win 53.4% 44.6% 2.24 +19.6%

Over 2.5 59.0% 57.8% 1.73 +2.1%

Over 3.5 33.2% 35.7% 2.80 -7.0%

BTTS 57.8% 63.7% 1.57 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob57.8%

A 53% / xG 0.9-2.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 0–2 10.5%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1✓ 10.7%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Northampton0.9

Barnsley2.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHAMPTON · PPG 1.05

BARNSLEY · PPG 1.05

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.05), Away AVERAGE (1.05)

Win probability 1X2

Northampton (H) 18.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -47.6%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +2.2%

Barnsley (A) 53.4%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV +19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Northampton face Barnsley in England - League One on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northampton a 18% chance, the draw 28% and Barnsley 53%, so Barnsley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Northampton and 2.0 for Barnsley (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northampton are averaging 1.05 points per game versus 1.05 for Barnsley. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Northampton vs Barnsley Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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