Northampton vs Barnsley Prediction— England - League One

England - League One Regular Season - 40 Sixfields Stadium· Northampton Tuesday, April 28, 2026 18:45

Northampton PPG 1.05

0-1 HIT CS4

Barnsley PPG 1.05

Away· +19.6% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Northampton face Barnsley in England - League One on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northampton a 18% chance, the draw 28% and Barnsley 53%, so Barnsley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Northampton and 2.0 for Barnsley (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northampton are averaging 1.05 points per game versus 1.05 for Barnsley. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 18.2%

Odds: 2.88 EV: -47.6%

Draw 28.4%

Odds: 3.60 EV: +2.2%

Away 53.4%

Odds: 2.24 EV: +19.6%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.73 +2.1%

Over 3.5 33.2% Odds: 2.80 -7.0%

BTTS 57.8% Odds: 1.57 -9.3%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-2 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-1 ✔

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Northampton

0.95

Barnsley

1.96

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +2.1% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Away(+19.6%)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.05), Away AVERAGE (1.05)