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Halstenbek-R. vs Paloma Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 14 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 17:30

Halstenbek-R.

PPG 0.50 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Paloma

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-15.5%0-29.3%0-310.4%0-4+20.5%1 1-01.2%1-14.1%1-27.0%1-37.8%1-4+15.3%2 2-00.5%2-11.5%2-22.6%2-32.9%2-4+5.7%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.6%3-30.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 5.3% — — —

Draw 23.4% — — —

Away win 71.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.2% — — —

Over 3.5 58.7% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)3.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 71% / xG 0.7-3.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3✓ 10.4%

#2 0–2 9.3%

#3 0–4 8.7%

#4 1–3 7.8%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Halstenbek-R.0.7

Paloma3.4

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 58.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HALSTENBEK-R. · PPG 0.50

PALOMA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Halstenbek-R. (H) 5.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Paloma (A) 71.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Halstenbek-R. face Paloma in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Halstenbek-R. a 5% chance, the draw 23% and Paloma 71%, so Paloma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Halstenbek-R. and 3.4 for Paloma (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Halstenbek-R. are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Paloma. This match finished 0-3.

Halstenbek-R. vs Paloma Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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