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ETSV Hamburg vs Victoria H. Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 23 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 17:00

ETSV Hamburg

PPG 2.64 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Victoria H.

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.64) > Away EXCELLENT (2.14)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.5%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.8%1-18.1%1-23.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.5%2-19.5%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-17.5%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-17.6%4+-23.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 16.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 39.2% — — —

BTTS 53.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.7%

H 59% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1✓ 8.1%

#4 3–0 9.0%

#5 1–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ETSV Hamburg2.3

Victoria H.0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ETSV HAMBURG · PPG 2.64

VICTORIA H. · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.64) > Away EXCELLENT (2.14)

Win probability 1X2

ETSV Hamburg (H) 59.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Victoria H. (A) 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

ETSV Hamburg face Victoria H. in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ETSV Hamburg a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Victoria H. 16%, so ETSV Hamburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for ETSV Hamburg and 0.8 for Victoria H. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ETSV Hamburg are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 2.14 for Victoria H.. This match finished 1-1.

ETSV Hamburg vs Victoria H. Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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