Today / India - Indian Super League / East Bengal vs Odisha FC

East Bengal vs Odisha FC Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 11 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 14:00

East Bengal

PPG 1.71 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Odisha FC

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.5% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.5%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.8%1-12.2%1-20.9%1-30.2%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.9%2-14.6%2-21.8%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.3%3-16.5%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-028.0%4+-122.0%4+-28.6%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.7% 80.0% 1.25 -5.4%

Draw 17.3% 19.6% 5.10 -11.8%

Away win 7.0% 11.1% 9.00 -37.0%

Over 2.5 79.5% 72.5% 1.38 +9.7%

Over 3.5 74.0% 51.8% 1.93 +42.8%

BTTS 57.8% 61.7% 1.62 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 79%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)4.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob57.8%

H 76% / xG 4.2-0.8 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 8.8%

#2 3–0✓ 8.3%

#3 5–0 7.5%

#4 4–1 6.9%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

East Bengal4.3

Odisha FC0.8

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 74.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EAST BENGAL · PPG 1.71

ODISHA FC · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.71), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

East Bengal (H) 75.7%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -5.4%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -11.8%

Odisha FC (A) 7.0%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV -37.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

East Bengal face Odisha FC in India - Indian Super League on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives East Bengal a 76% chance, the draw 17% and Odisha FC 7%, so East Bengal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.3 for East Bengal and 0.8 for Odisha FC (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, East Bengal are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.60 for Odisha FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +42.8%. This match finished 3-0.

East Bengal vs Odisha FC Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - Indian Super League Predictions