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Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Monday, April 27, 2026 22:30 
Defensor S. PPG 2.20 
Progreso PPG 1.00
Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Monday, April 27, 2026 22:30 Defensor S. PPG 2.201-0 HIT MostLikelyScore
Progreso PPG 1.00Draw· +3.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 36.9% Odds: 2.35 -13.3%
Over 3.5 9.4% Odds: 4.50 -57.7%
BTTS 39.6% Odds: 2.05 -18.8%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-0 ✔
2nd 0-0 ✘
3rd 2-0 ✘
4th 1-1 ✘
5th 3-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Defensor S. 1.32
Progreso 0.38
Model Suggestion
Home -3.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -3.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+3.0%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+3.0%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=51.2%