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Defensor S. vs Progreso Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 13 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 22:30

Defensor S.

PPG 2.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Progreso

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 53.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.1%0-17.0%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.0%1-19.2%1-21.8%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.9%2-16.1%2-21.2%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.0%3-12.7%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 53.2% 1.88 -3.7%

Draw 32.2% 31.3% 3.20 +3.0%

Away win 16.6% 24.4% 4.10 -31.9%

Over 2.5 36.9% 42.6% 2.35 -13.3%

Over 3.5 9.4% 22.2% 4.50 -57.7%

BTTS 39.6% 48.8% 2.05 -18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob39.6%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.4 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 24.0%

#2 0–0 18.1%

#3 2–0 15.9%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensor S.1.3

Progreso0.4

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.9% · O3.5 PROB 9.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSOR S. · PPG 2.20

PROGRESO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=51.2%

Win probability 1X2

Defensor S. (H) 51.2%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -3.7%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +3.0%

Progreso (A) 16.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -31.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensor S. face Progreso in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensor S. a 51% chance, the draw 32% and Progreso 17%, so Defensor S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Defensor S. and 0.4 for Progreso (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensor S. are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Progreso. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Defensor S. vs Progreso Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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